[broiler]

Personally, I have been flat betting ties in division 4 as you call it. My win % on individual games does not justify making large number of team parlays. The favorites usually don't give the value necessary to justify placing a bet on them. I rarely bet on a team for less than even money because of this.

I noticed this morning that the League Championship (division #2) has 17 of 24 teams in the money for flat betting ties. I didn't do the math, but I would suspect that the league is fairly close to the magical 31% to be a money winner.

The bookies probably don't get much action on the fourth division in England. How much money could be wagered on this league? Ties are known to be the least wagered outcome for any match, so the tie action is probably minimal. My thought is that the prices could stay good for the rest of the season. Of course, that doesn't mean that the outcomes will be as good.

The bookies do make changes for draws in the top leagues. Italy Serie A just had their tie prices dropped in the last couple of weeks. I'm just not sure how much thought goes into England fourth division odds.