[W. Deranged]

E--

Good comments.

You are right that I am very much of the "value tends to be maximized in multi-way pots by raising immediately" school of thought.

In general my reasoning comes from the fact that you are rarely going to get two-bet cold-calls on the big bet streets, and that on action boards the turn card is generally more likely to kill your action than actually to generate increased action. Basically, there are plenty of situations where opponents willing to put in two bets on the flop or even more when there opportunities are still open become unwilling to put in anything on the turn if the turn is scary. Those opponents who are likely to get excited about the turn card and give you ample action there usually have holdings with strong potential on the flop (flush and striaght draws, good pairs, etc...) and so are going to pay to realize that potential anyway.

Think of it this way. A player with a hand like A9 (maybe with a club), QJ (maybe with a club), and so forth will often pay two bets if you raise on the flop as the pot is big and they rate to have a pretty good hand. They think you could just have a draw and don't want to go anywhere. Those sorts of hands, though, are rarely calling on the turn if you raise there and face them with two cold and they haven't improved on the turn.


The general theory comes from a couple of the following general premises:

1. The more cards that appear on the board, the fewer the number of players who are willing to put in money. The flop is the point where your opponents' hands are least well defined, everyone's equity tends to be closer to average, and everyone psychologically is more excited about their chance of winning the pot.

2. 2 sb is a much less formidable price than 2 bb for anyone.

3. Opponents are much more likely to think your moves on the flop are with weak hands than they are to think the same on the turn.

4. Unless you have fantastic relative position, slowplays tend to work by extracting large prices from a small number of opponents. Flop raises extract smaller prices from a larger number of opponents. When you have many possible customers, the latter is often more valuable.



Just some thoughts. I do think raising here is better. I think the value of information on the flop is not really important, because you have the nuts, are blocking the obvious flush redraws, etc... On the flop, you should be interested in value and not in letting your opponents define their hands.

Also, the fact of "tipping your hand" is one I think you actually have backwards. A flop raise is much more likely to be thought to be smoke-and-mirrors than a turn raise is. A flop raise is very often going to get three-bet, and you can gain value while letting your opponent keep the initiative. (I realize that this may be an argument to not capping the flop, which I'm a bit more open to than not raising the first time).



Anyway, thanks for encouraging me to explain a viewpoint that even I feel sometimes gets a bit too dogmatic.