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During the rebuy phase, with slightly shallower stacks, I like this move. Here, I can't say I'm a big fan. You're getting about as close to 1:1 as you can get, and even if your read is correct I don't think you're going to be much better than 40-45% against that range. It's still early enough that I think chip EV = $ EV is a pretty good rule of thumb.
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So far consensus seems to be "fold, moran." Which is fine. But I have more questions if you'll indulge me.
Say we're nearing the end of the rebuys...blinds 75/150, we each have 6000. Is calling 40x there all that much different than 100x here? I'm getting the same price on my money, and I'm not sure his hand range is different. I'm asking because you're implying that the shallower stacks are the important factor, and not that I can rebuy. And while yes, I can rebuy, if we're nearing the end of the first hour I'm not too excited about buying myself a shortstack. I'll do it, but I really want to end that first hour with at least 10K.
Say the hand range I gave in the original post is correct, and my equity is exactly 50%. Do you make this call? Recently for me the answer's become a definite "yes", because I'm getting more accustomed to running my table as a laggy big stack.
edit - I posted this hand in part because I've been pondering
this thread. I realize there are some obvious differences - I'm risking my whole tournament, Gigabet plays about a billion times better than I do, and so on. But I'm making a marginal chipEV play in the hope that it'll pay off over the rest of my hands at the table.
Then again, everyone says I'm being stupid.