Re: Can you let this go?
Sorry, EverettKings, I didn't mention his raising pattern... In later position, he would generally open raise a big amount 4x-7x, he varied it. So this is about normal for him.
Against a normal stack, I would have reraised, but I was pretty sure I could unlock a big number of those chips if I could flop well. I believe, in this situation, the turn check behind is standard, since this is a big stack and he is being aggressive and will probably bet the turn no matter what. However, when he checks again, I really have to bet just in case he has that flush draw. His reraise on me completely catches me off guard.
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The turn check raise is really odd from him. If he flopped or turned a set, would he really go for the check raise twice with more draws now on board? It seems that he would go for the flop check raise and if that didn't work, then bet out the turn. You have not shown any aggression at any point during the hand and he has no reason to believe that you will bet on the turn.
I smell a big semibluff from him here. He probably thinks that you are stabbing at the pot because it was checked around on the flop and he showed weakness by checking the turn.
He could have picked up a pair and a flush draw or a pair and a gutshot, or even just a pair. Of course, he could have flopped or turned a set, but it just doesn't feel right.
What's more is that you are getting paid 33k:14k (about 2.5:1). Winning this pot would put you in fantastic position to take advantage of the weak bubble play about to occur. He only has to be bluffing like 30% of the time for the call to be right.
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Soss... I totally agree with your thinking, and I was initially thinking precisely the same way. However, my problem was that I was playing tight, solid poker and he HAD to know I had a big hand to call his preflop raise and bet out on the turn. He's basically risking a third of his chips and the chip lead on this bet, knowing I have odds to call if I have anything.
I'll give others a chance to read and post their thoughts before I put up the results.
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