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Old 03-31-2005, 02:09 PM
SossMan SossMan is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 559
Default Re: Can you let this go?

tough spot, zoot.

I would often play it the same way you did both preflop and on the flop. There are other options on both streets, though, obviously. You likely have the best hand and you have position, so a preflop raise could be justified...the problem is that if he decides to get frisky with something like 99 or TT and push back preflop you can't call. So just calling preflop looks fine, since you have position and flops should be a little easier to play with this hand.

It's a nice flop for you. You are likely in a way ahead, way behind situation, since there are no OESD or 4 flushes on board on the flop. He likey has 5 or less outs, or you need runner runner.

I think the check behind on the flop is fine. You should be able to pick off a turn bluff from him.

The turn check raise is really odd from him. If he flopped or turned a set, would he really go for the check raise twice with more draws now on board? It seems that he would go for the flop check raise and if that didn't work, then bet out the turn. You have not shown any aggression at any point during the hand and he has no reason to believe that you will bet on the turn.
I smell a big semibluff from him here. He probably thinks that you are stabbing at the pot because it was checked around on the flop and he showed weakness by checking the turn.
He could have picked up a pair and a flush draw or a pair and a gutshot, or even just a pair. Of course, he could have flopped or turned a set, but it just doesn't feel right.
What's more is that you are getting paid 33k:14k (about 2.5:1). Winning this pot would put you in fantastic position to take advantage of the weak bubble play about to occur. He only has to be bluffing like 30% of the time for the call to be right.

I like a call in this spot.

-SossMan
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