Re: Quick thoughts, more later
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If UTG bets the turn and a drawingdead opponent mucks, it's horrible. If he gives a free card, there's no guarantee that they call the river, but there's AT LEAST A CHANCE for post-turn profit to be made.
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This analysis is terrible. He raises his impossibly strong hand on the flop, then checks it on the turn (cuz he "knows" you will call on the flop but not the turn, that's a special kind of fish that will call at 7:1 and fold at 11:1, then call the river)? Maybe, but that's the least likely scenario. What about the flush draw, just let him see the river for free?
I'm sure you posted this hand to show us how brilliant you are, so why don't you post the results, because your arguements don't seem logical to me. And that's why I don't think it's a good river fold.
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