Re: Quick thoughts, more later
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Sorry I edited my post - kind of wrote in a hurry - had a conference call at work.
Anyway, I didn't run the numbers with 95% certainty but it's probably an ok laydown because you chop half the time with the button.
Here's to hoping your read was on.
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Edit: Hmmm the more I think about this...and I don't say this often but, based on the way the hand went down it's almost guaranteed MP has AK/AQ/AJ and button has AK/AQ/AJ.
Which means you're right, there are no Aces left. So it comes down to how often is UTG betting into 3 players (albeit one has checked) and can't beat an ace? 1 in 20 might be right. Ha, given all that online I still make a "I can sleep at night" call. But only because I don't trust my reads past the 10% intervals yet: 90% certain, 80% certain. Maybe one day.
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I've never lost sleep over poker [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].
Seriously, I've tossed away winners in pots like this before (I used to put too much faith in my reads, so whereas it may seem like I'm doing that here, I've done it much moreso in the past), and it never lingers.
When I throw away hands like this as winners (which doesn't meaned flawed logic, though it often points to that), I often end up posting the hand here and getting showed the error of my ways. So far, I've yet to see any error in my ways here....I'm not convinced that UTG bluffs over 10% of the time here....
J
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