Re: Quick thoughts, more later
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If it were me (and I play only SLIGHTLY less than 38% of my hands), I'd check the turn not to checkraise (although I would if the opportunity presented itself) but to allow all the drawing dead AK, AQ, AJ, etc catch up.
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OK, but they already called 2 cold on the flop, now they are reluctant to call 1 big bet on the turn?
Doesn't utg want to bet the turn if they are drawing dead because they will likely call a bet on turn while they are "drawing" but be reluctant to call a bet with bare Ace on the river. You need the parlay of them to be drawing dead and to make there hand on the river for it to be break even with betting the turn don't you?
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Yep, if he'll bluff the river over 10% of the time into a field of four. I don't think he will.
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He doesn't have to be bluffing, he just has to have a worse hand than you. There's no way utg can have Ahxh? Couldn't utg have been raising the flop trying to clean up his Ace outs, then checking the turn to draw as cheaply as possible?
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