[Redd]

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KF if they'll fold more hands than they'll call, and they'll only bet if they're ahead.

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I really challenge the second axiom here; I think that a wide range of hands are betting after seeing the past two streets get checked through, and all queens are heavily discounted for not seeing any previous action from them on the flop or turn. A better T is a possibility here, but IMO not good enough to justify a river fold.

I'm a little confused by axiom 1; it seems like a simplification to me. Shouldn't they need to call with losing hands less often than calling with winning hands to justify the check, assuming that axiom 2 is true?

edit: I see what you mean in the first axiom when taken in context with this:
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Unless they'll call you with hands that they would have bet, in which case the combinations of getting those calls and seeing a showdown may make betting more attractive again.

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but I'd argue this is true almost 100% of the time.