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Old 07-01-2004, 01:30 AM
Derek in NYC Derek in NYC is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 130
Default Odds of for playing \"double runner runner\" situations

This is my first post on 2+2, so pardon me if I'm not getting the posting protocol right. (I initially posted this in the wrong forum, but was advised to move it here.) My question is a general one about a situation I frequently encounter, namely, when is it right on the flop to call 1 bet if you are drawing to what I call a "double runner runner", meaning on the turn you might pick up a str8 draw, a flush draw, or ideally both (or your overcards might pair). But on the flop you only have the double backdoor draws. For example:

Suppose you are in late position and you call the BB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Now the flop comes:

10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (the latter two cards meant to represent rainbow garbage)

Somebody ahead of you bets, and some number of people (I dont know how many), call. Now it is up to you. Your essentially crappy hand can become a playable hand (but not a made hand) on the turn in several ways.

First, your Q or J could pair, giving you top pair with an okay kicker.

Second, you might pick up a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], which now gives you 4 to the flush, and its unlikely that with only one [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the flop, you're going to have a lot of people deliberately drawing to the [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] nut or second nut flush. So your draw--if you hit it on the river--is an okay one.

Third, you might pick up a K or 9 on the turn, creating the open end str8 draw for you. (And of course if you picked up the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] , you now have the openend str8 flush draw--an ideal situation, esp. if the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is what comes up on the turn, because now you're drawing at the second nut flush if anything other than the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes up on the river... and if the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] comes you have the stone cold nuts!)

So if you want to count your outs on the flop, you have 21 ways to improve your hand on the turn (4 Kings, 4 nines, 7 spades (excluding the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] , 3 queens, and 3 Jacks). Now admittedly, some of your outs will require you to hit another out on the river (namely the str8 and flush draws, and you're about 4:1 against that possibility). Moreover, in most cases you will not be drawing to the nuts.

So with this lengthy preamble, here's the question: what are the situations when you're going to want to call that 1 bet? I realize the answer depends entirely on the size of the pot, your read on the table, the number of opponents, your position, etc., but I'd like some general rules of thumb. I really dont have much intuition for what to do in this situation other than I'd probably call if there's a lot of money in the pot, and I'm in very late position (e.g. at most 1 or 2 off the button.)

Follow-up question: How does your answer change if you didn't have overcards on the flop? In other words, instead of the Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], you were playing a medium suited connector like 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?
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