I've read several discussions about whether or not the fish will eventually go away. Thats hard to predict, but one that is is clear is that online poker would be an extremely attractive job for individuals in developing countries. This is the one unique chance to participate in the USA/European economy with few barriors to entry. Given that they are willing to work in a factory, as doctors, computer programmers..etc for a fraction of the wage of a USA worker, why wouldn't one expect them to play poker at similar pay scale? Assuming that they required a premium of 100% of their normal job, then the tables would tighten by about 2 levels. E.G. 5/10 would start plaing like 15/30 tables of today..etc. Basically there would have to be a shift down until it no longer became advantageous for them to leave their jobs, where as now (although probably not in equilibruim) its basically limited to the point where USA/European workers find it advantageous. The net impact, based on my guesswork is that the average pro would lose about 50% of his earning ability. Online poker hasn't caught on in south america like it has here, but I see no reason why it won't.

Those fish have less $ to give away while the sharks can consume with the best of them. Globalization of poker, will not be a good thing for current pros in my view.

I had posted this on another forum among peers who I highly respect. They didn't seem to be in agreement with me, so I thought I would seek out more opinions here. Fire away!

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Limit Tables Rate/Hour % of population Foreign Job Muliple of Job Mult after 2 Level Tightening Impact on US Pro
1/2 2 3 13 45.0% $2.8 4.81 2.3 -55.6%
2/4 4 3 22 35.0% $4.0 5.39 2.6 -43.5%
3/6 6 3 30 24.0% $5.9 5.15 2.5 -35.7%
4/8 8 3 39 12.0% $8.5 4.54 2.3 -36.7%
5/10 10 3 47 6.0% $11.9 3.95 2.0 -47.2%
10/20 20 2 61 3.0% $16.7 3.66 1.9 -64.7%
15/30 30 2 89 1.0% $23.3 3.82 1.9 -73.9%
30/60 60 2 173 0.5% $32.7 5.30
60/120 120 2 341 0.3% $45.7 7.46
</pre><hr />

* Included $5 per hour for Rakeback/Bonus
** Percent of population is the percent that is mentally capable of beatting the level, not the percent that I think would beat that level.
*** In reality, I think at equilibrium players would not require a premium to their current job pay rate, do to the flexible life which poker allows.
**** This ignors the obvious tightening of the game due to an improving player base.