[ddubois]

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While it is true that you would like to see many different hands fold, the likelihood of it making any difference is quite small, because a multievent parlay is required as follows...

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I have brought up this point on the forums before, and it was never answered to my satisfaction. I don't agree with the articles' exact set of hurdles that need to be met, at least not the way he presented them, but I do think his point has merit.

Let me see if I can work this out. Hand 1 is Hero. Hand 2 is the button PFR who autobets when checked to. Hand 3 is the range of hands that might call one but probably wouldn't call two and whom we want to fold...

Board: Jc 7s 5h
Hand 1: 42.1899 % [ 00.42 00.01 ] { 8d7d }
Hand 2: 39.9121 % [ 00.40 00.00 ] { AA-TT, AKs-A9s, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo }
Hand 3: 17.8980 % [ 00.17 00.01 ] { TT-88, 66, 44, AKs, ATs-A2s, KTs-K7s, T9s-T8s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, AKo, ATo-A7o, A5o-A2o, KTo-K7o, T9o-T8o, 76o, 65o, 54o, 43o }

Is my range for hand 3 good? I tried to be realistic about what would actually fold. We can try to get every gutshot, every pair that could pick up an OESD, every pocket pair bigger than 7 but smaller than J, sole overcards to J, and maybe AK to fold, but I assume no jack will fold. But I don't include 3-out or 5-out hands that we are beating, like 72o or 52o (my thinking being that we want them to call along?) - maybe I should have included these hands for this analysis to be correct?

So, assuming we get hand #3 to fold:

Hand 1: 54.3452 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { 8d7d }
Hand 2: 45.6548 % [ 00.46 00.00 ] { AA-TT, AKs-A9s, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo }

So for the investment of one SB, if player 3 is holding one of the listed hand and he folds, we increase our equity by about 12%, in a pot with 14.5 SB (14.5 SB would be the size of the pot if we called instead of raising), an absolute increase of equity of about 1.74 SB.

If I put up 1 SB to win 1.74 SB, player 3 has to have one of the hands I had listed about... 37% of the time? So will he? There are 1326 possible starting hands in hold'em. Let's say player 3 is loose and plays 700 of the starter holdings, and that every hand in my list is amoung his starters. There are 350 ways to hold something in my list, so he will have one of them... 50% of the time!? I'm surprised!

So, is any of my post correct?