Re: I smell a set
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This is the trouble with checking the flop. Villain's actions on flop scream strength as there are no draws to call a bet and check-raise with. His original plan seemed to be giving a free turn in order to let somebody catch up a little.
Unless you have some note on this guy that he is wildly loose passive, I don't see what value you are going to get out of betting the turn. Check/fold.
Villain will have two pair or a set 90% of the time. You are either dead or drawing to 3 outs on the river.
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As played, I c/f the turn.
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