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Old 09-14-2005, 11:53 AM
edtost edtost is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Princeton
Posts: 15
Default Re: probability theory notation

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The sigma algebra tells you the granularity at which you can distinguish states. In finance, this comes up most often in credit default models. With a standard Merton model of default, defaults are always predictable. You can see the stock price approaching the default barrier, there are no surprise defaults. But suppose you only observed the stock price sampled every second and rounded to the nearest penny. The underlying stock price is still a random walk, but you don't have the full information. In this model, there could be a surprise default.

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Thanks a lot, that was exactly what I needed.

Bonus points for figuring out that I was reading a derivation of a standard Merton model for a seminar on credit risk.
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