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Old 12-22-2005, 02:52 PM
betgo betgo is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 792
Default Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy

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I don't like raising to 50K and folding to a reraise at all. Once you raise to 50K, you have pot odds to call. Either push or limp. .

K7o is only a 59-41 dog to A2o and you have pot odds.

You were the chip leader but had less than 20xBB. It is easy to bust out fast if you don't play weak tight.

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Well, he's not flipping over A2o and showing you, is he? Against a more reasonable range of any Ace, any pair, K7o is a 65:35 dog.

If he raised to 50k, and the guy reraised him all in, he has to call 145k to win 245k. Those are odds of 63:37. So he does not have the pot odds to call.

Even if he did marginally have the pot odds to call, he is giving up so much the 65% of the time that he loses. The ability to push around. The ability to steal without committing your whole stack. The ability not to be a pushbot.

You guys are acting like this was all inevitable, since he was folded to in the SB with K7 (which is only a 55% favorite against a random hand). I think that is completely wrong.

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Blind versus blind, I don't know if villain's range for reraising allin is all that high. K7o is about the same versus A3-A6 as A2, and better versus 22-66.

If you are really planning on folding to a reraise, I would miniraise, which gives you better odds to fold.

I think the push is best here. It is definately chip EV+. I think Sklansky did calculations, showing that you could push with an awful lot of hands even if your opponent knew what you had.

True you can wind up going from chip leader to bust out playing aggressively, but you can also win the tournament that way.
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