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Old 11-30-2005, 02:18 AM
DRD66 DRD66 is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: wherever
Posts: 41
Default Re: 99.8% to win on the flop

Here's the thing: I completely understand what you're saying, but still don't agree and here's why. NL variance and standard deviation is HUGE BOTH WAYS. Read it again. Yea, 500bb is more than 10bb (and actually, the hand you describe would be more like 25bb), but the effect is about the same. You ever try to win back 25bb at a limit table? Ain't easy. At 2.5bb/100 (a very respectable win rate), I'm playing another 1000 hands to make that back. Or, like you, praying for an idiot to sit down at my table to donate it. I'm sure you've won a few 500bb hands - it all evens out no matter what game you play.

And, truth be told, I do play NL. My online limit play bankrolls some live NL games around town where play is unbelievably soft if you can take the swings. First time I sat at one of these (in a smoky union hall with a bunch of iron workers), I made an atrocious pf call of a 10xbb raise with QTo. Flop came QQT, raiser pushed with pocket ten's and I took his stack. Lost most of it to an even dumber call 3 hours later, and it hurt so bad my hands were shaking. But I still play there, 'cause long run I'm winning.

Play whatever you want to play, but respect all the games and all the serious players.

Shuffle up and deal. [/soap box]
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