Re: 88 your play?
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When you flop your set, you have 3 streets and 5 players to pay you off,
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How is this related to preflop raise?
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Because the bloated pot will be more likely to induce callers when you hit.
Yes, the move is slightly -EV strictly from an equity point of view.
We probably lose something like 0.2 SB or so in EV (these are quick estimates and not at all accurate, but they get the point across), versus calling. But in doing so we get:
1) The possbility of a free flop card. That's a free 5% shot at say 16SBs = 0.05*16 = 0.8SB. I'll reiterate this is a total simplification and doesn't take into account several factors that both increase and decrease this number. But even here, if we get the free card 1 time in 4 (seems likely), we've made our investment back already.
2) The chance to get more bets in when there is a bigger pot. For every player's flop fold in a 6SB pot that becomes a call in a 12SB pot gets us probably about 0.8SB. If we induce turn calls, it's even more profitable.
And this completely neglects the nontrivial number of times that the flop comes ragged undercards and we can play aggressively with our overpair, and our preflop raise did make us money directly.
So for a very small investment preflop, a number of good returns can occur postflop that make us money in the long run.
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