[schwza]

i think it's a lot closer than most people are making it seem. for one thing, it's not clear from the op that the raiser has been at the table long enough to know that the limper is tight, and there's no way to know that he's paying attention. i wouldn't read a lot into the size of the pfr either - i'd usually make it 4x in that spot, so making it 4.5x is not too meaningful to me.

even a "relatively tight" villain raises AJ almost every time, and usually will raise a number of other hands. it's the possibility of MP or BB having a powerhouse that makes it a fold for me.