[VarlosZ]

According to my system, the lines are simply being set too low this year.

Last year, my system (which starts at Week 6) picked 86 Favorites and 88 Underdogs, with a win rate of 58.5%.

This season, the exact same system has picked 82 Favorites and only 52 Underdogs -- just 39%. It's win-rate this season has been 55.7%. Unfortunately for me, the system is doing great on games for which it returns a weak opinion, and just breaking even on other games (a problem it didn't have least year), so my bankroll is just treading water.


Anyway, my point is that this doesn't look like a random fluctuation from my perspective. I have no idea why the lines aren't being set high enough this year, but I don't think it's just a matter of flipping a coin and having it come up tails an unually large number of times.

Edit: FWIW, my system picks 9 favorites and 7 underdogs this week. It's weakest pick is Tennessee -6.5, so that's apparently my lock of the week.

Second Edit: I forgot to mention that the above numbers for last year don't include 9 games from Weeks 16 and 17 in which one team had nothing to play for and was resting its starters.