[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The table probably thinks I'm tilting at this point

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the main reason why this play is good, IMO. They'll think that your 3-bet on the flop could be any piece of it or nothing, so they'll likely try to value bet on the river.

Without that piece of information, it's hard to see why someone would bet this river for you (and why they would pay off the raise).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, my in-game quick-reasoning was that, given the board, a lot of straight draws just got there on the river, and if he was on a gutshot that missed, he just made a pair.

Given that reasoning, though, sexying is probably wrong since if he made a straight, I get in a 3bet, and all the times he paired some aspect of his junky gutshot, he might check behind. I say "might" since he's way more likely than a competent player to make a losing river bet.

The fact that he's more likely to bet his middle pairs and weak hands when checked to make this play closer than it first appears.