Re: 99
I missed the poster and somehow forgot about the SB. It should look like this (assuing UTG+1 calls every time):
Lets assume UTG calls 100% of the time, then the odds we're getting to call is 18.5:3.5. The odds against making a set is 1:7.5 and the chance of hitting it and that it holds up about 1:10. Important to notice is that 18.5:3.5 isn't the same thing as 5.3:1. You need to make a lot of more bets postflop getting 18.5:3.5. To calculate how many bets you need to make multiply 1:10 with 3.5 (the number of bets you need to put in the pot). You get 3.5:35. Then substract 18.5 from 35 and you get 16.5. You need to make 16.5SB postflop when you hit your set.
To put these numbers in some kind of context the final pot you win need to be:
18.5SB + 4SB = 22.5SB (preflop)
16.5SB + ~6SB = 22.5 (postflop)
Total: 45SB
The 1:10 number is a number someone came up with (Sklansky?) that have been accepted for estimating how often a set holds up. Given the previous raise, 3-bet, cap it should probably be a little higher for this hand as the risk of hitting and losing is greater.
Even though I missed some crucial information I think the preflop call is pretty slim, but might be correct.
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