Re: My bust hand from Sunday\'s PokerStars $500K guaranteed
I like your push.
Some more back of the envelope crude estimates!
Hero is about 50% against a modest range for villain (77++,a9s++,kq). So the push is only EV+ to the extent of hero's FE which hero feels is low and the dead money in the pot. How low? Villain is getting ~1.5:1 in the pot to call a push and has to be 40% in the hand to justify a call. If villain puts hero on a tight range of 99++,AQ++, villain can still call his entire range and get 40% equity. Given hero's read, and villain's stack, I think hero's FE is pretty small. Maybe villain throws down only the Harrington 10% which we will estimate at ~10%, so hero's FE is only worth ~10% X T1850 = ~T180.
There's T850 in the pot of dead money (not belonging to either player) which hero gets 1/2:T425.
Hero bets T7000 to win ~T600 (T425+T180); it has alot of variance for a little gain, but hero should welcome the variance at this stage in the mid-tourney, and it's CEV+.
The estimates are crude, but it will come out CEV+.
I have ignored further action by other players.
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