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Old 06-13-2004, 03:47 AM
TXTiger TXTiger is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 13
Default Re: Passing top pair, good kicker on Party - is it possible?

Calling the turn raise in the 15-30 is always tough, because there is a lot of semibluffing. I agree that check raising both of you is strong, but still does not rule out a draw or made hand + a draw.

I count 8.33 bb when it comes back to you on the turn, so it's 8:1. But if you are going to call the riverbet then it's really more like 4.5:1. I think you need to decide before you call the turn whether you are going to call the river. I would definitely not call then fold.

If an utg player hit 2 pair here then what would he hit? It almost has to be A7 or A9. It can't be K9 or worse unless you know this player to be poor. So you are drawing at 3 jacks + 3 kings at 7:1 to win (the 3 nines could give you a split). But wait, both red jacks put a flush out, so they may not be good. And you have another player calling along. What if he has a red QTs or many other bad possibilities. Of course your opponents can't have everything, but we don't really know which cards they are rooting for. I think the odds are not even close to there to call and try to hit 2 pair when you may not even win. Of course if utg has a set then your done . You could be way behind here. I limp with AK in ep sometimes just so hands like AJ will raise me, don't completely rule out AK. There is a lot that beats you.

Let me switch gears now. UTG could very well have a hand like Axd, JTdh, KQd, basically any type of straight flush draw or a pair and a flush draw. That's a lot of hands, and many of them are just the type of hands that would limp utg. So there is a definite possibility you are ahead, but you won't know until you call the river bet.

I would fold a majority of the time. You raised preflop, there is an AK on the board, and utg check raised 2 players. If your hand is good now, I think you lose on the river at least 1/3 of the time. You could potentially lose to and heart, diamond, or any card 9 or larger.

If this person was a habitual bluffer I would call everytime. Some people semibluff almost every draw in the 15/30. You can't let these people steal your pots. On a hand like this you might also want to consider your table image. Have you folded to several turn raises lately? Or maybe raised light preflop and ended up folding. If so lean towards calling.

Bottom line is either decide there is a good enough chance you are ahead and call the turn/river. Or decide you are probably behind with a decent chance to lose even if you are ahead and fold the turn. My opinion is that the odds are not there to take a card off when you have no idea if that card will win for you. I think calling then folding the river is the worst of the 3 options.
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