Re: How often do we see aces?
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I took 70%+ but I'd say its between 80 and 85% ... but I'd still probably call.
Your EV is probably pretty close to neutral since you are getting 4-1 and are about a 4-1 dog to AA and you might even be ahead some small portion of the time against a bunch of donks.
The main reason I call is because the TimeEV of having 5000 chips on hand 2 seems like it has to be worth something.
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If you knew you were up against AA calling would be a terrible mistake.
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If we knew ... yeah that would suck. But we don't know do we. That 15% or so of uncertainty is enough to push it over the top.
On the other hand as I proposed in my first post, if we had a medium suited connector here. We don't much care if someone has AA or not.
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First of all I think 15% is a very generous estimate.
Secondly, I don't think that even such a generous estimate outweighs the horror of getting it all in as a 4:1 dog on the first hand. I mean...doing it on the 1st hand of every SnG would automatically make you a sizeable loser, even if you got 1st every single time after sucking out!
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