Re: A JJ hand
Are we overanalyzing the thought processes of a weak player (who is shortstacked to boot)? I can't help thinking the whole situation is simpler than we're making it. Basically I think the rest of his money is only going in the pot when he thinks he has you beat (and most of the cases where he thinks that, he probably does, especially if you let him see more cards).
Either he already hit an ace or a set and is trapping, or you check and let him catch you on the turn or river (big mistake). The only scenario I can see where he puts his money in as an underdog is if he has a pair of 8s or 4s with a decent kicker and reads your bet as a bluff. So basically I'm saying push and get him out of the pot before he can catch anything, since the chance he has you beat already are pretty slim given your read. I'll elaborate a little:
Seems like this is the type of player who calls with a wide range of hands preflop and tries to spike a card. We can pretty easily dismiss most of the scenarios where you're beat here. If he has a PP 88+ he probably would have pushed preflop (yes?). So you're probably not worried about a higher pocket pair or a set of 8s, and you have 99 and 10-10 beat anyway. Even if he was smooth calling with QQ or KK (which seems fantastically unlikely given that he's the shortstack), there's a good chance he'll give you credit for aces if you push.
In fact, there are only two possibilities I'd worry about here. A set of 4s (I can see this guy calling with 44 rather than pushing) or any ace that hit a pair. Given the range of hands this guy is willing to call with preflop, chance of either of those is maybe 20%, absolute max.
I'd just push here and be done with it. If he spiked an ace and checked it, so be it. Your stack is still in good shape and the money was probably going in anyway. If not, he folds and you pick up a decent pot of 6-7 BBs and leave him even more shortstacked; no complaint there. Your best-case scenario is that he hit a pair of 8s or 4s (or he has a smaller PP) and reads your push as a bluff. Then you get paid off and bust him.
To me it's obvious that the worst option is to check and give the fish a chance to hit a pair of kings or queens or a baby set. While I respect the greater experience of posters who counseled checking, I disagree. They seem to think that a check will induce an all-in bluff on the turn, but it seems to me that you're only getting a push here if the guy's hand improves, in which case you're probably beat.
All of this is to say, more concisely: I don't think there's anything you can do to induce an all-in bluff here. The rest of his money is only going in if he thinks he has the best hand. Chances are greatly in your favor that you have him beat on the flop, and you should push to prevent a suckout. That's my point. =)
(I'm basically making exactly the same argument that Strasser did, with more (possibly unnecessary) detail.)
Crooked
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