[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If you're going to count the 2 theoretical flush cards that were folded, you have to count the 8 non-flush cards that were folded as well or you math is flawed. The odds remain the same when you account for folded cards, since you must account for *all* folded cards, not just the ones that are outs for you.

Bottom line is, an unseen card is an unseen card is an unseen card.