Re: A tough spot w a big pretty flop
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on the flop, there's 450 in the middle and hero has to call 225 more. villian has 615 left, meaning we're getting 1065:225 or 4.7:1. hero has 12 outs to the nuts so on the surface it looks like call flop/folding the turn should be ok.
to me, all this says is that you cannot fold unless you are very sure villian will not pay off, it's either call or raise. you are 1.5:1 against a set and around 1.75:1 against the straight. factor in the times he is losing (9T,AKo) and pushing (risking 840 to win 950) can't be that big a mistake.
another thing to consider is he knows you are unlikely to have QJ here but he could very well have it. against most 2+2ers he has a lot of folding equity in this spot over your possible range of hands. so I wouldn't rule out a bluff/semibluff.
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You know your stuff. Thank you.
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