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After a mistake on the flop, was it a mistake to fold on the turn or would a bluff-raise have been an even bigger mistake?

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Hero is crushed. The turn fold is mandatory.

You estimate bluff-raising to be profitable only "if villain folds more than 73% of the time with QQ or JJ." That's a sizeable gamble to win a small pot. An observant villain might call to snap off semi-bluffs; a loose villain might call to try to hit their set; a stubborn villain might call just to show down the big pair. Remember your whole plan hinges on a strong made hand folding for one more bet on the turn HU. Desperation move.

Fold here and pick a better spot.