View Single Post
  #16  
Old 04-26-2005, 04:27 PM
gergery gergery is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: SF Bay Area (eastbay)
Posts: 719
Default Re: I cant win on Party Poker

Take my entire commentary with a giant grain of salt, since 1300 hands is no where close to significant. You could very well be playing perfectly and getting bad variance. That said, someone with your numbers long-term would generate the following commentary from me in my notes.

Note: my database is 10-20 with 470 players who’ve played 100 hands or more, so will be slightly different than your level, but from reviewing my 2-4 database in the past, I don’t think the #s will be too far off. Also, the number in parentheses at the end of the paragraph indicates what rank in my database your number would be.

[ QUOTE ]
VPIP of 21%, pf raise- 3%

[/ QUOTE ]
Slightly too tight in loose games. Certainly not wrong and some players are successful in my database with these #s with a tight style. But in my opinion is somewhat less than optimal as you are leaving money on the table in your marginal hands if you play well postflop (hands like bare A3, 2356, QJTTss). The average for the winning players is ~25% (12% -- means only 12% of players are tighter than you). Note: selection bias may be over-inflating that 25%# tho.

PFR – low (26%). With a tight style you’d want this around 5-6%. Could also go up to ~10% with different style. You may not be raising enough in late position with strong hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Went to Showdown - 31.12%

[/ QUOTE ]
Very low. (6% -- 94% of players went to the showdown more frequently than you).

[ QUOTE ]
Won $ at Showdown - 59.84% (this shows how small of pots I am winning to still be losing so much)

[/ QUOTE ]
Low (40%). Combined with, Went to Showdown, you may be folding marginal hands too soon. Or are staying in too long before folding.

[ QUOTE ]
Won when saw flop - 24%

[/ QUOTE ]
Extremely low (4%). This has the single highest correlation with winrate, so you simply can’t be a winner with a number this low.

[ QUOTE ]
- flop/turn/river agr factor 1.6/1.31/.97

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop – very high (90%). Aggression is good, but you may be doing too much pushing not pulling with your monsters. Or too much semi-bluffing into fish with hands that don’t warrant it. My correlational analyses with 90+ pokertracker variables show “Won at Showdown when making Flop Bet” is 4th most important variable, so this is an important area to focus on.

Turn – high (78%). Same as flop, but much lesser extent since #s are typically higher here.

River – avg/low (40%) – Either you are taking lots of bad beats on the river, or you are over-aggressing your hands on flop/turn. Combined with Went/Won Showdown #s, you could be making bad folds on river since you’ve pounded the flop/turn to create big pots.

Conclusion: I would review your pokertracker hands lost specifically for the following, in order:
1) When you folded on river and were able to see others hands, was your fold correct?

2) Did you take lots of bad beats on the river card?

3) When you bet/raised on the flop and can see opponents cards in pokertracker, were those good bets knowing their cards?

4) When you bet/raised on the turn, should you have been trying to push or pull with that hand?

My notes on this player would say, 'overaggressive with weak values on flop/turn', can be bluffed at river", so i'd be calling you down on flop/turn, then betting the river.

Again, my comments are for if your numbers were long-run. In short run I can’t say if my comments apply or not to you particularly, but hopefully this gives you some places to look.

Hope that helps,
-- Greg
Reply With Quote