[switters]

It does make sense, you can break it down like this:

1.31% of the time, you flop a straight.

10.45% of the time, you flop open-ended, and you will complete 31.5% of those (10.45% * 31.5% = 3.29%)

now, the part that seems counter-intuitive in this is that of the 11.39% of the time you MAKE a straight with JT, more than half of those times (6.79% / 11.39%) are from a gut-shot or a back door flush.

while a gut shot is less likely to complete (4 * 46 / C[47, 2] = 17.02%), you will flop a gut-shot (78, 79, 8Q, 9K, AQ, AK) almost twice as often as you'll flop an open-ender (some double-counting here)

of the ~20% of the time you flop a gut-shot, you make 17%, that accounts for 3.4% of the 6.79%.

so, it breaks down (approximately):

1.31% : flopped straight
3.29% : flop open-ended and complete
3.40% : flop gut-shot and complete
3.39% : back-door straight

don't be confused by these numbers -- they do NOT indicate that you are more likely to make a gut-shot or a back-door straight. You are LESS likely to complete any ONE gut-shot or back-door flush than you are to complete a given open-ender, but there are MANY more flops that give you a gutshot or a back-door draw, so if you saw every hand to the river, in the long run you would see more straights starting with a "worse" draw... these numbers don't take into account the MANY, MANY times you never see those gut-shots or back-door straights hit, because you are a good poker player who folds those bad draws [img]/forums/images/icons/wink.gif[/img] these are the percentages if you see the river, no matter what the odds.

-switters