Re: Tell me I\'m wrong
the error in your example is in assuming what was dealt to your opponants; but set that aside.
there are specific times you can nail down with a comfortable degree of certainty that certain card are out of not out. The most obvious example, and maybe the most useful, is in counting the remaining aces. If you are at a loose table where people tend to play any ace, and the opening pot was not raised, then the cards mucked before the flop are unlikely to contain any aces. On the other hand . . when a player who was aggressive before the flop turns passive after a ragged flop like 9-3-2 . . . that is very likely AK or AQ, so if you played 45s and are thinking about hitting your straight, you would probably be wise to count one less ace.
Your post alluded to flush draws. I am not as strong mathmatically as many others, but here is what I worked out a long time ago, I think it is about right.
If: you have been dealt two clubs, and the flop contains two clubs, Then: it is about three-quarters likely that another player was dealt two clubs. Further, there is about a 1 1/2% chance that any given player was dealt two clubs. Obviously you need to observe their actions to decide if you think they really have the goods, but those numbers give you a starting point.
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