Re: Nit of the Day: Drawing Dead and Raising the River
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The pot on the river will therefore be 7BB when it's bet into you. If you think there's greater than a 14% chance you're drawing dead, you can't call, or, to state it more generally, if you think there's a greater than 1/pot% chance you're drawing dead, you can't call.
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On the river, if it's a 6bb river, he bets and it's 7bb, and then you're thinking about calling, your break-even point is when you win 1/8 of the time, not when you win 1/7 of the time (if you win 1/7, you win money by calling).
Consider: River aggressor bets 1/4 pot, you therefore have to win 1/5 of the time. (25% of pot called requires 20% success). 25/125 = 1/5. Therefore:
success requirement = call% / (100 + call%)
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