Re: $55 Quick check 3: KJo on BB facing SB miniraise
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basically, you make this push if you think he's going to respond weakly to aggression (i.e. fold). i actually don't think you want a call here.
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Correct! You don't want a call here - unless he is folding enough to make up for when he DOES call (because of the "dead" 900 chips). It might seem counter-intuitive, but if he called 100% of the time here, you'd have to be 50.3% favourite for it to be +$EV.. and KJo just doesn't stand up that well against a whole lot (thus the need for it to be a 39% range). The problem is, when he folds the bottom X% of that range, then the hands he still calls with, KJo holds up badly against those too, and so on.. it doesn't get below 37% range til he's folding 40%+ of the time.
That is what I was trying to get at, but hey, ridicule is fine too.
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