[lastchance]

Well, that suddenly becomes a lot simpler.

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I remember another thread about this, but basically, this is it how it breaks down:
Pac 10 - USC
Big 10 - Penn State
ACC - Miami
Big 12 - Texas
Big East - West Virginia/South Florida
SEC - LSU/Alabama/Auburn/Georgia/Florida

Random spots:
OSU/Alabama/Notre Dame/Oregon/Texas Tech/Virginia Tech

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LSU or Georgia wins SEC, loser is way out of contention for a BCS bid. Miami loses to GT, and they give up their spot to Va Tech.

TTU loses, Bama loses twice, and it comes down to this, IMHO:

Pac 10 - USC
Big 10 - Penn State
ACC - Virginia Tech
Big 12 - Texas
Big East - West Virginia/South Florida (South Florida has better than 50/50 chance, as West Virginia has to come to South Florida)
SEC - LSU/Georgia (probably LSU)
Outside bids:
OSU/Notre Dame/Oregon
Big Ten's toughest conference in country, by far, OSU lost to Texas and Penn State, #2 and #3 team in team in the country, IMHO. Oregon's the best 1 loss team left that doesn't already have a bid. And Notre Dame has prestige going for it.