[HelmetCrash]

When pushing a midrange pair in situations like these, I've found the following rule of thumb to often give the same push/fold advice as SNGPT and can be quickly estimated realtime in your head at the table before making the decision, if you get comfortable with it.

Calculate the odds of a single player holding a higher pair than yours. In this case it would be 1/220 * 6 = approx 1/40.

Calculate the total amount of money remaining players hold, in units of BB (unless they hold more than you, then use your stack size). In this case it is right around 50 BB.

Multiply these two numbers 50 x 1/40 = approx 1.2. If this number is smaller than one, then the correct play is to push. If this number is larger than one, then the correct play is to fold.

Using this analysis for this hand, this quick estimate shows it to be a very close call between pushing and folding, with folding the correct choice. By tweaking the number used to determine push/fold (perhaps something like 1.4 would be a better than 1.0?), this method may be improved.

Anyways, I often use this estimate as quick realtime guidance at the tables to keep me from making larger mistakes. What do you guys think of this rule of thumb?