Re: Interesting Live Deep hand
to the turn: $575 in the pot, al has about 4.25 left and you have about 6.25 left.
you bet 1500 blind into the 575 pot and all pushes on a board of
AK65. would al do this with a naked ace? if you bet blind, you could have a bluff, why would he want to set you in when he could easily call with his hand and let you bet the river.
he either really wants you to fold or he really wants you to call here and im leaning towards the latter. think about how he'd play this with his different range of holdings. would any random bluff hand bet the flop here into a known checkraiser (apparantly)? would he then push another 2.75 into the pot on top of your 1.5?
i honestly think his hand range here is AK/AA/KK/55/66/maybe A5s/A6s if you've been opening way light, and maybe, just maybe AQ/AJ given your image.
id think that on teh turn you are virtually crushed. 3.5 or so in the pot and you have another 2.75 to call. so just over 2:1. given the range and "outs' you have + the chance you're outs are no good i think make this a fold.
HOWEVER, the bet on the turn is quite large and its one of those monster/air type bets. if he thinks you've been nutso enough to bluff this far then his only real option is to push, but i dont see a top player thinking like that assuming thats what he is. if, however, you've gotten him into a state for which that play would not be out of the question then yes i agree with the call.
as of right now though, i vote fol.d
Barron
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