first hand
Tex - first hand
You have 17 outs after the turn, but 4 of your outs are for half the pot.
If the river card had been favorable and you had won, then when there was no low, CO would fold and
• 13/44 (win 22 small bets)
• 4/44 (win 6 sb)
• 27/44 (lose 12 sb if EP has the straight)
The way you played, if EP has the straight,
13/44*22 sb + 4/44*6 sb - 27/44*12 sb =
6.5 sb + 0.55 sb - 9.37 sb = -2.32 small bets
Let’s try it without the raise on the turn.
• 13/44 (win 14 sb)
• 4/44 (win 4 sb)
• 27/44 (lose 8 sb)
Without the raise on the turn, if EP has the straight,
13/44*14 sb + 4/44*4 sb - 27/44*8 sb
4.14 sb + 0.36 sb - 5.80 sb = -1.30 small bets
Let’s try it with a fold on the turn when the straight becomes possible.
• 44/44 (lose 4 sb)
-44/44*4 sb = -4.00 small bets.
Folding is clearly your worst option, even if EP has made a straight on the turn.
If EP actually makes a straight on the turn, whatever you do is a loser. But since you lose the least amount by calling on the third betting round, your best option is to just call. But that’s assuming EP has made a straight on the turn. What if EP doesn't have a straight?
By betting the turn, I think EP is <font color="white">_</font>representing the nut straight, but EP isn’t <font color="white">_</font>guaranteed to have the nut straight.
But does EP actually <font color="white">_</font>have the nut straight, or even the non-nut straight after the turn? Hard to say.
Let’s think of betting a lower high hand than yours (non-nut flush draw, lower set, two pair, or one pair) as betting foolishly.
When EP bets after the turn, EP either (1) has a straight, (2) is betting foolishly, or (3) is bluffing.
You’re stuck either calling or raising the turn, since if EP <font color="white">_</font>does have the straight, folding is your worst option (see above).
Will EP have the straight (as represented) more often than not? (Or if EP doesn’t already have a straight will EP make one on the river if you don’t improve?)
I think you have to continue after the turn because folding is your worst option if EP actually does have a straight. In addition, there is the chance that EP is bluffing or betting foolishly.
If EP is bluffing, then if you raise, does EP merely fold, perhaps putting you on the turned straight? If so, you gain nothing by raising, and actually lose a pick-off call on the river (and you’re going to be stuck calling on the river with your set of queens because of the size of the pot, just in case EP is bluffing or betting foolishly).
I think you only gain by raising if EP is betting foolishly. And if EP is betting foolishly, you should eventually prevail anyhow.
As things turn out, since EP actually has a straight and since you do not improve on the river, you’re destined to lose here - but you can’t know that on either the turn or the river.
Therefore, all of the above things considered, I think your best move on the third betting round is to simply call.
When you have top set on the turn but a straight is possible and an opponent bets, seemingly representing the straight, a call is probably your best play.
Just my opinion.
Buzz
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