[Ed Miller]

1st, you assume using random hands will be close enough, well I checked out my old pokertracker hands from 2-4 to get an idea of what hands we could safely eliminate these hands were 72o 84o KK AK etc. I then ran a simulation(5M hands) ATs vs random hands not including these hands and ATs only won 18% of the time and tied 3.4% (against all random hands I got 22.2% wins and 2.8% ties), so the actually % is closer to 19.7% not 23.5%

I'm surprised the difference is so large, but I won't argue it since you are in a better position to get this number than I am.

2nd, there is a 35% chance there will be a flop that you will not continue with so what % of the time you fold would you have actually won the hand? running simulations I got a rough estimate of 3% so 3% x 35% = 1% of your wins will happen when your hand is mucked. We are now down to 18.7%

This adjustment you can't make, however. That's because it will be correct for your opponents to fold as often (or more often) than you. Cutting the winning percentage of ATs without cutting that for your opponents makes your situation appear worse than it is.

Your opponents won't fold when they should, you say? Well, that is, of course, to your benefit, not detriment.

3rd, Why are you including your bet when you calculate the value of the raise? I think it should've been 9.2% x 6 opponents

The 7 is correct. I address this question in the original thread as well. If you prefer it this way, calculate EV = 0.197 * 7 - 1.

4th, there is that small possibility one of the early limpers has a monster and reraises, its insignificant so I wont include it.

Good. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So using your 19.7% number, we now get a $0.76 error. Failing to raise ATs is still clearly a bigger error than all three "call when you should fold" errors, but it is now closer to the folding AQ error.

.528 is quite a ways from 1.30 doesnt seem very important but if you made a mistake like this where the actual value is -.2 and you claim +.572 that would cost a few players a few cents.

By my own admission, I was making a very rough estimate. I wouldn't use this method of estimating if my margin of error were smaller.

Im sure theres just a very small peice about this in your book if anything at all since its a situation you wont see too often, but I have a feeling your book will have quite a few flaws...

If you find a flaw, please feel free to let me know.