[StellarWind]

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Misreprenting AK isn't that big of a deal against their ranges, especially OOP.

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Learning about UTG's hand doesn't help that much.

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I don't want to overstate things like this, but these advantages add up and allow you to gain/save an extra bet now and then. They are worth remembering when you have a close decision between calling and raising.

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The player holding a PP also has implied odds on us because we have to continue when we miss. Folding a missed flop or even turn for one bet in pot this size would be bad. Those peels have to be taken into consideration at the time of our preflop decision because we know they're a possibility when we play the hand.

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This is incorrect. Consider the following examples. In each case the preflop pot is 10 SB and we face QQ and AJ:

Flop 1: A53

Both players will call bets here and the AJ is apt to become somewhat aggressive. All the money our opponents put in this pot is bad money because they don't have adequate odds. This is a very profitable example of our implied odds at work.

Flop 2: T85

We will probably call this flop if we can do so for one bet. That is not an example of implied odds for the QQ because we have adequate pot odds. He would be better off if we folded immediately and gave him the pot. Since winning the current pot is better for him than having us call the flop bet, it is clear that he has negative implied odds on this particular flop.

The preceding paragraph assumes for simplicity that the AJ will abandon his hand when he sees this flop. Obviously he might continue and that would be great for both QQ and ourselves, but it doesn't change my basic point that QQ is not making money off of AK's flop call.

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Those peels have to be taken into consideration at the time of our preflop decision because we know they're a possibility when we play the hand

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Not in a negative way because these peels are profitable or we shouldn't be making them. BTW this is an example of how seeing if UTG caps preflop is helpful. We don't want to be making marginal peels while likely dominated or duplicated.

Preflop EV analysis should go something like this:

1. We may hit an A or a K and have a really valuable hand.

2. Certain unusual flops like QJT or a 3-suited flush draw also have a lot of value.

3. Gutshot plus overcards has a little value.

4. Overcard flops are nearly worthless and often we won't see the turn. But once in a while we get a free card or marginally profitable peel opportunity.

In theory we could estimate all of these EVs, add them up, and compare them to our preflop investment. But the main thing you need to know about cases 3 and 4 is they are slightly positive and make almost no difference to your preflop decision. There is no such thing as a negative EV flop because folding the flop is always a zero EV option at your disposal. You would only call a flop if you could do better than that.

The preflop idea behind calling is to make a lot of money in cases 1 and 2 and otherwise write our preflop investment off. That it may actually be possible to make a small profit off of some bad flops by calling is something I'll worry about when it comes up.