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Old 12-27-2005, 08:38 PM
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Default Re: BB special, flops the stupid end; What to do now?

About 30 percent of the time you'll see a 9 or a 10 fall. Let's take 3 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Someone has 9T-
Welcome to Screwedville, population you. I think it's foolish to ever get away from this hand being afraid of that. The light would start flickering after some major fireworks, at which point the pot is so large I'd call it down.
Scenario 2: You're facing a 9 and a T, but not in the same hand-
One of them will hit 23% of the time by the river. "They, collectively, have 6 outs. Maybe you're getting rid of the guy holding the T, not the 9.
Scenario 3: You're facing a 9 or a T, not both.
He will hit the high end 18% of the time. The 9 is still going nowhere, T probably won't either.

So worst cases you're losing this hand 20% of the time if these situations exist. I'm guessing they do at least half the time. Meaning you lose 10% of the time, 15% if they exist 3/4 of the time. Let as many bets roll in as possible. Call I say. If it gets narrowed down with SB's bet start raising and get more bets out of the fewer players.

Hmm, I guess those numbers don't matter since those are the hands NOT going away. Nice when the analysis proves it's usesless. All the more reasons to let the most marginal hands have a reason to stay. Get the others hooked on this hand. Then get those overpairs, pair the SB may have, and draws calling raises on the turn/river. Maybe those UI overs will improve to a hand that all of a sudden wants to re raise you, i.e. AK and an A hits. Better yet QQ and a Q hits.

And if the board pairs, fold- you are DEFINTELY against quads.
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