[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) This is an easy preflop call with no raise, easy fold in the given situation.
2) Your claim is false. The 50% number was an overestimate (to be generous to your position). 33% turns out to be a better choice.

Edit:

3) Futhermore, you should only expect to win about half the time you "hit" the flop, because you will either have a draw that comes in only 33% of the time (and win only about 85% of those) or you will have a pair that is difficult to protect.