Re: Not a very good play
Actually I was basing my analysis on Stew's familiarity with the table and his feel that exactly one of the other A/K's was accounted for. Stew has been insisting that the pure chance of villian hitting his set on the flop, as viewed from the pre-flop perspective, is pretty low, and you correctly agree with him; however, you and he both miss my central point.
Stew's 1-in-5 probability of facing an even-money 2nd-best-set scenario on the flop skews his pre-flop implied odds calculation. Stew has admitted that he would have to consider calling in that situation. This leaves only an 80% chance that his optimal post-flop betting scenario will materialize, and that only takes into account the set-over-set implications for his implied odds, leaving out the straight and flush draw implications which others have alluded to.
The conclusion being that going in with 77 against AA or KK, even with the table conditions he describes, is not supported by the implied odds he claimed in his original post.
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