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Old 06-12-2005, 11:35 AM
DesertCat DesertCat is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona
Posts: 224
Default Re: Is My Thinking Flawed...Pre-Flop Implied Odds

Let me elaborate on my logic since you were asking about implied odds.

You will hit your set on the flop about 1/8 of the time. When you do, your worst case victory scenario is the other players fold the flop to Villain, you check raise the turn, and Villian calls you down. That's risking 2 small bets preflop to win 15 small bets total, so marginally -EV.

Well that's because it's your worst case scenario, and it's what is more likely to happen in a tighter, higher limit game. At small stakes you can count on at least two players calling the flop ("it's a big pot"), and one calling the turn ("it's an even bigger pot"), and inexplicably folding the river ("I didn't have nothing anyways"). So in reality you are risking 2 SB to win 21 SB, which is +EV.

And I'm assuming that one of the lemmings didn't hit the flop for top pair or two pair, which mean's he reraising villain on the flop. Pot size 25 SB + easy.

If you only had a single limper before the raiser, it's probably a fold.

Villain only has two outs four times to make a higher set (since you took one of the flop cards to make your set). So you have a one in six chance of playing against a higher set (actually less, he might fold to crazy action if it gets to three way raising).

But you have a strong read on his hand, he has no clue to yours, so you can save bets when beat. If he hits an A or K on the river, for example and bets into you, you are probably calling. And you have a 1/15 chance of hitting quads when he hits top set, and boy will you get paid off then.

The key point is that if you have many callers who will call too much, and for two long, they are putting money in the pot at a huge disadvantage to you. That extra "almost dead" money is what provides you your implied odds to take the long shot to hit your set.

If your table doesn't meet this criteria, or you don't have enough limpers on a hand, then fold. And read SSH by Ed Miller, it explains all of this in depth.
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