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Old 06-12-2005, 05:36 AM
imported_piki imported_piki is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Ljubljana, Slovenia
Posts: 43
Default Re: Is My Thinking Flawed...Pre-Flop Implied Odds

I think few people replying here are playing a bit scared. Of course ugly things can happen when you flop your set, in this particular case, if our Hero wasn't already behind, he loses the pot about 50% to an OESD, a flush draw and a higher pocket chasing his set, if all that is simultaneously out there. But heck, why do you care? That would be 3 players paying you off for your coinflip win, I love it.

Or maybe a straight is already made. You still have about 1:2 odds to hit full house and take it down and enough players int the pot to make it +EV. Barring a higher set, these are about the worst thing that can happen to you, and all bring you money. And as it was already pointed out, a set over a set is such a rare occurence, it doesn't really matter.

Point being, a set has huge equity on just about any flop, and regardless of what people are drawing to, you are going to win a lot more than your 'fair' share. In most cases, you'll have everyone drawing very slim anyway.

I agree with Stew's play. He has the benefit of a good read and great position. The raiser will be betting into you on the flop and on the turn and most probably he'll pay you at least 3BBs to see the showdown. Given the pot size on the flop, you only need him to get at least even on your money. All is good.

-pix
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