[einbert]

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Damn... just when I thought I had it!

OK... How do you proceed after Villain leads the turn?

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The reason I don't like folding to the turn bet is that villain's play is very much in line with a pocket pair 33-88. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a heart draw or A2 or A4, maybe even just something like JT (perhaps you had been isoraising him a lot and he got annoyed by it?).


I've thought about this hand a good bit, and the best conclusion that I can reach is to play it the same as yours. The K is really a good card for us, it makes sense for us to hold it (to villian) and I think if we get threebet here on the turn we are good basically never.

Close behind in terms of EV I think is calling the turn and calling the river UI, betting if checked to. This line allows us to showdown our hand for the same price, but gets less value out of hands that would have paid off a turn raise and river bet. And this villian seems like the kind to do just that (I would doublecheck his WTSD although with those preflop stats it's most likely high).

Of course if he's the kind of player to semibluff the big streets hard, or to go to war in a HU pot OOP with a flush draw, I like raising the flop. This will get us threebet sometimes, which we can call down, and sometimes he will checkraise us on the turn which we can call down. But from the stats you provided he doesn't seem like that kind of player.