Re: QT 1/2 hand
Maybe this seems straightforward to you guys, but I thought it was kind of an interesting hand. Here are the reasons I did what I did.
Ed Miller says in "Small Stakes Hold Em" that QT is playable for one bet in late position on both tight and loose tables, which is why I played it. I do not see why you would recommend folding it if it is playable on a table of any texture at the small stakes level. Why do you guys think I shouldn't be playing it?
Let me give you a breakdown of what I was thinking at each stage of the hand.
The flop gives me four to a second-nut flush as well as an open-ended straight draw for a combined total of 15 outs. Because it was checked to me, I have no reason to assume that anyone has top pair, and therefore count the 3 queens in the deck as being worth 1.5 outs. So I probably have a total of about 16 1/2 outs here, giving me better than 2 to 1 odds to hit one of my outs on the turn and making it more likely than not that I will improve to a strong hand by the river. I see this as a good spot for a semi-bluff. It may also fold players drawing to weaker hands, and could win the pot right away. It will probably also give me the option of taking free cards if I want to.
The four on the turn is a scare card, and when no one bets I have no reason to think they have hit trips. As such I think it is a good opportunity to continue with my bluff as I could steal the pot right away. In addition, I think I have pot equity here to raise and be called. With better than 2 to 1 odds to make a hand by the river I do not see how a bet could be unprofitable here in the long term. Why do you think I should check the turn and forgo the opportunity to build a bigger pot when I have such a strong draw?
The check-raise by the player UTG suggested to me that he had probably made three of a kind with the four. This will happen, if I figure correctly, about once in 15 times, so I see no reason to assume it has happened this particular time and think I should bet out rather than take a free card, since I think it would probably scare him into folding right away more than 7% of the time. His bet means I shouldn't consider the remaining Queens as outs, which leaves me with 15 outs. This doesn't alter the good drawing odds I think I have, so I continue to reraise in the hopes of building a bigger pot.
I was thinking of my KQ thread from the other day when I folded on the river. I remembered from that discussion that, with a 5% chance of winning, you could only call a single bet on the river for a pot of at least 19 big bets. This pot was less than that and I also think, because I did not improve, my chance of winning was probably less than 5%, so I folded.
Any comments?
|