Thread: Bubble Play
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Old 09-09-2004, 12:27 PM
NegativeEV NegativeEV is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 118
Default Re: Bubble Play

Believe he has T700 after posting big blind. Agree it makes a big difference.

I agree with Strassers thought process, but have a couple of extra thoughts that help me recognize that this is a clear push:

Look at the situation if you do NOT push. You have T700 remaining which gives you close to zero folding equity when facing the remaining big stacks. With 4 players left, you are out of time to wait for a solid hand as you will be required to move all in on your next big blind. You are unlikely to catch solid cards in those 4 hands which means you'll likely be pushing in with a random hand and may or may not be 50/50. You are currently a probable 50/50 or 60/40 and have the opportunity to take these *poor* odds with a chance of doubling through and being in a solid position to make a run for first. If you fold, you will likely be in a 50/50 spot with the opportunity to win far less chips and have a weak shot at first.

To me this comes down to the short time frame that folding will allow you and the fact that you can likely take a 50/50 now for a shot at first or a 50/50 in three hands for a shot at third.
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