[pokerstudAA]

Played this hand the other day and was looking for some feedback. It was largely read/player/stack sized/situationally based. So pay attention to the details before flaming me.....

The situation: Deep in an MTT. 650 started - 60 left. Hero has a big chip lead at the table and a 3x average stack size at 64k. (avg 22k or so) Hero is in the BB with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Blinds 2k/4k.

The players:
MP2 -been at several tables with MP2. He has been consitently raising heros BB - even from earlier positions with small low risk 2-3x BB raises. Hero has been giving it up like a little girl but is waiting for a chance to play back at him. MP2 Has 26k in chips.

CO - Played solidly so far. 24k left
Button - 24k. Has not shown anything crazy.
SB - no real player read

The hand: MP2 opens for 2x the BB 8k. CO cold calls for 8k. Button cold calls 8k. SB calls 8k. Hero is BB and the pot is 32k + 4k (hero's BB). Hero has everyone at the table covered.


Reads: MP2 was raising light. I think the table knew that and had similar reads on MP2. CO could have a small pair or suited connectors. Button and SB are playing speculative hands. The pot is huge.

My thinking - no one can bust me here. 20k would hurt but certainly not cripple me. I want this pot right now. MP2 did not want all this action and should fold. Button and SB both are playing speculative hands and will probably fold. I do not think anyone has a big pair JJ, QQ, KK, AA. We would have seen more action preflop. I can call 4k and check fold any non-favorable flop. OR I can push and try to take it here. If I get called by 77,88, 99, TT - I am not that bad (68/31 ish). If I get called by AQ, AT - I am not that bad (65/35 ish). AJ would be bad (70/30). If someone slowplayed AA,KK - really bad - except at this point I dont think any of the player involved would have played those hands this way. Everyone in the pot has about 18-20k left and might not be ready to risk their entire tournament this deep. I don't think anyone has much of a hand. I think I can get a few folds. If I get one caller I might not be that bad off. The pot is freaking huge. I think making this huge squeeze play has a good chance of working. At worst I will get the pot heads ups and a 70/30 dog. I have a decent chance of winning a huge pot.

Hero goes all in with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].