[Burg]

Sitch #2: I open limp in MP with some trash like QTos, one late position player calls, and the blinds complete & check. Flop comes QT6 with two spades. Check, check, I bet the pot, LP calls, blinds fold. Turn is a blank, I bet (how much here? Pot? 1/2, 3/4 pot?), LP calls. River is a low spade, I (check?), LP bets 1/2 pot. Easy fold? I find myself paying off a lot in these situations, and it usually makes me feel fishy. (Side question: If the same situation occurs with an apparent straight draw, is my play any different?)

Recently I went to a seminar in Denver, CO with Howard Lederer as the speaker. I spoke personally with him about the size of bets that I should be making post flop, and he gave me this advice: You should seldom, if ever be making oversize, or even pot size bets. Why? Because it's just too much. If you get called by any decent/good player and you don't have the absolute nuts at the time, to call a pot size or oversize bet, they have to have a VERY good hand or draw. Remember... you're not playing poker to win the pot, you're playing to win the money! Howard continued with this, a point that he emphasized in his seminar: LEVERAGE. You should be making 50% to 60% of the pot bets frequently, if not always when you make a good draw or have a made hand. When you gain experience and more confindence you'll begin to get a feel for opponents and be able to better get a feel for when you should bet with, for example, a hand like third pair with an overcard kicker. When you use these bets, you put YOUR OPPONENT to the decision. Theoretically, you don't even have to win the pot to win they money, all you have to do is force your opponent to make a bad call, then you've made money.

So in the hand above, I would first bet out about 60% of the pot. Look for a quick call. Does he call immediately? That often indicates a draw, and at that point I would put him on a flush draw. Does he think for awile and then raise? You might be looking at an AQ or trips, but very seldom QQ or 1010. I would probably fold to a significant raise at this point, but I would have to have a great deal of respect for the player. So let's say that he quick called. if you bet 60% of the pot and he called you with only a flush draw, he made a bad call. Does he have implied odds, well probably not. Often times i'll give up the pot if i'm playing against a player who will pay for these draws and a 3rd flush card hits. So a blank falls on the turn.... I'll bet out again with your hand for about 60% of the pot. If he calls again (another bad call) and hits, you might lose the pot, but you've made money in the long run. And on the river, If nothing hits I might make a small value bet, or sometimes try and induce a bluff. If this person is calling with a flush draw and you check to them on the river, they might just go all in trying to bluff too.
Could he have flopped trips and now he's all in on the river? I say no, remember that you bet out on your draws according to the strategy above. Well, if he has picked up on this at all, and most times even if he hasn't, he would most definitely raise the flop!!! Wouldn't you? Against a player that I know bets out a lot, I would raise.

Hope this helps... let me know what you think.

Happy Pokering

Burg