[W. Deranged]

How likely do you think you are to get raised here?

If you get raised, you will paying paying 2 bets into a pot that's probably going to be 12 BB or so. If you don't, you're paying 1 bet into a pot that's going to be about 10 bets.

So the equity we need here is strictly more than 10% and no more than about 14-15%.

So we need at least 5 outs in general but on average probably don't need more than about 7 or so.

We have 4 outs that are basically completely clean, unless we're chopping with another AK. I don't think they need to be discounted any further than .5 and out or so. So let's say 3.5. I think we can count something like 2-3 overcard outs.

So on average I think we have 6 outs about. And we need somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-7. Okay.

Here's the thing. The demand for 7 outs is if we're 100% sure we'll get raised. If we're 50% sure, we only need 6 (roughly speaking). If we don't think we're getting raised a majority of the time, we probably have a clear call.

So I call. Call one bet back to you. I think we can easily fold to two back to us.

River a T.